Reaching agreement using the Delphi method
The Delphi method, a consensus method, is a tool for reaching agreement on a problem by repeatedly having a group of experts answer questions.
Of interest to:
- researchers
- decision-makers
Recommended for:
- collecting new ideas and future scenarios to succeed in achieving a research project
Unlike brainstorming, the Delphi method does not involve direct group interaction. Experts reflect on the problem individually. They complete questionnaires and provide feedback on each other’s answers. This process is repeated until an expert consensus is reached and specific solutions have been found.
Four stages
The Delphi method consists of four stages:
- preparation: research question, action plan and terms and conditions, bringing together a group of experts and appointing a group leader
- first list of ideas and scenarios obtained through brainstorm sessions or literature studies
- Delphi rounds: participants respond to the questions in writing or digitally. A new questionnaire containing the feedback from the previous round is created based on the feedback and removal of non-relevant information. This is followed by another questionnaire until agreement is reached. There are usually three rounds.
- Analysis of the results.
Participant requirements:
- anonymity
- based on experience, knowledge about the subject matter
- from different groups (informants, decision-makers, researchers)
Advantages:
- no group interaction means no external influences, positive or negative
- not bound to a maximum number of participants or groups
- structured flow of information due to removal of non-relevant information by group leader
- meaningful information thanks to regular feedback on participants’ own answers and opinions
Disadvantages:
- not possible to make adjustments through non-verbal communication in case of misunderstandings
- subjectivity of researcher (group leader) in deciding whether information is relevant or not
- Delphi research is very time-consuming. Result: occasionally no reliable data due to quick, ill-considered answers.
Background
The Delphi method was developed in the 1950s and 1960s by RAND Corporation, an American think tank, at the request of the United States Air Force. After the 1960s, the method was used in other disciplines to reach consensus on solutions to problems, ranging from projections and future scenarios to determining policy decisions based on the information of experts.